Welcome to the 2022-2023 SC League and our first Analysis of (hopefully) many this season. I know the frequency and timing of these have become infrequent over the past 2 seasons, but I'm hoping to get back on track in putting these together this season with hopefully some more enjoyable insights.
Before we jump into the analysis I wanted to go over some methodologies here.
What is this - It's an analysis of the draft with me trying to display as much objective information as I can coupled with some opinionated thoughts. This year I am using Hashtag Basketballs Auction tool to compare our actual values to projected values.
Hashtag Basketball allows you to set custom rules and adjusts the projections based off those rules so while this isn't 100% matching of what the ESPN projected values were, this is to me a good enough substitute. Some minor players unfortunately didn't get pulled into the tools top 200 list. I've identified those players in the tables provided and have set their delta value to 0 to prevent swaying the overall numbers too much.
If you'd like to play around with the tool - here's the link
On to the Analysis!
Suprcalifraglis TicxpaliSabonis
Team S.T's draft strategy seemed to be a wait and see approach making their first pick at pick 8 with Tyrese Haliburton for $61 dollars, which is projected as a $7 dollar overpay. The team's biggest over pay based on the projections is Devin Booker bought at $56.
Interestingly enough the overall net-delta of this team is 0, meaning the ST didn't over pay nor under pay for their team. I question the Kevin Love pick but I like the bold picks of John Wall, Jerami Grant, and Terry Rozier all of who can start the season out strong.
B+
Thunder Struck
I don't even know what's the point here - for two seasons in a row Thunder Struck has drafted one roster and via trades and wire work has ended with a completely new roster to end the season, all while being on of the top 3 teams in the league.
Ja Morant is being projected as the biggest overpay, bought at $64 dollars while Nurkic was the best valued pick bought at $4 dollars.
There are some interesting names here, with Gordon Hayward, Paolo Banchero, and Christian Wood being some surprising selections that can ultimately become more valuable in trades early in the season.
The cost spread here is pretty even with Ja clearly getting the biggest bag by Thunder Struck, and while projects have more players listed as being over paid than not, the over payment amounts are relatively small negating real risk here....but...much of this is likely pointless if this season plays out like the ones before it.
B+
Bad Decisions
My first thought looking at this roster - I like it a lot! Marcus Smart is the highest rated player here and while I think he's the most over rated defensive player of the year, I can see why projections would like him. Bought at a whopping $1 dollar Bad Decisions landed a player who dabbles in multiple categories. Steals and Blocks are worth a whopping 2 points in our league, assists and rebounds worth 1.25 each. Smart isnt a prolific scorer but those ancillary stats are going to make him a solid producer at the price.
Then we have the actual stars of the team, Embiid when not hurt, produces just as much as Jokic and in our league is capable of hitting the 80 fpt mark. I think Bad Decisions got an absolute steal here at 61 dollars and 4th pick in our draft.
Josh Giddey is potentially looking for a breakout season especially if OKC's management is looking to shelve Shai. Anfernee Simons, Scottie Barnes, and Malcolm Brogdon are also some picks I think are going to surprise people.
Brunson, Butler, and Sexton are being projected as large over pays for this upcoming season and really it will be based on their performance that I believe the team will emulate. This may be a surprisingly deep team come seasons end
A
Ball Don't Lie
From a projections standpoint this team is actually pretty good as far as value is concerned. The highest paid players are also the two standout stars - LaMelo Ball and Jason Tatum, both chosen back to back as the 6th and 7th picks respectively.
Jonathan Isaac is an interesting sleeper pick with Wendell Carter Jr, Poeltl, and Schroeder being under rated picks. Brandon Ingrams will be an interesting selection though may be best served as trade fodder to land a much needed second pf.
In fact this team just isn't well balanced to my eyes. I think theres some potential here, but I don't see this is a power house team as it stands. There are plenty of potential tradeable players though.
C+
White Boi Dug
There was a joke during the draft that White Boi Dug was trying to gain a monopoly on all the white boys in the league though he only has 3 - Doncic, Wagner, and Kristaps. A standout last leason, WBD once again had what i believe is a very good draft.
Luka is going to continue to be statistical monster, and was really the only player WBD overpaid for. The Spectrum smoothes out for the remainder of the picks with only a single $1 dollar player on the roster. WBD played the draft with a plan and with our projections showing a positive $40 dollar delta, from an analytical standpoint he did really well.
From a basketball perspective there's a lot of potential here...a lot of boom or bust potential.A good week is all that's needed to potentially entice someone to buying high on a gamble during the season. However, just the same, if players fail exceed expectation WBD may easily find themselves in SACKO. This team is on my watch list just for the pure volatility of it all.
B
Team Harambe
It must be good to be rich. Team Harambe made most of it's picks late in the draft when others had already used up 2/3rds of their budget. Their first pick came at pick 20 landing Alperen Sengun for a measley $18.
The identity of this team however has to come from the acquisition of Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, and Jordan Poole - the splash brothers from golden state. Team Harambe used a similar strategy last season and it worked well them.
Clint Capela is projected as the greatest value gain, bought at $5 dollars and valued at $33. While mostly a one trick pony, CC is bound to be tops in the league in rebounds, especially with Gobert now sharing the court with Kat. He's also the sole shot blocker for Atlanta and with Blocks worth 2pts a piece, we could be looking at a player that will average 35 fpts bought at just $5 dollars. A steal.
I really like the Anthony Davis pick, despite the injury history. AD is bent on staying healthy this year, and this may mean slightly lower numbers across the board, but I expect if he can achieve his goal he will be a top 10 fantasy player.
What is shocking to me is probably the fact that Team Harambe ended up with the second highest projected delta value at a whopping $59 dollars. I think this is a well built team that will hit hard when the warriors play and have some flexibility in in-season moves
A
Bam Bam I shot U Down
Fun fact - Rebounding has historically been over valued in our league. While it's been nerfed a bit since last season, it still hold a good yield in points and players who can rebound, pass, steal, and block are better than elite scorers. When I look at this team, I immediately see a bunch of rebounders with multi category skills.
The highest paid player here is KAT and will be the focus of the team. Bam - the namesake of the team is rated as the best value. Harden rounds out the big 3 here and according to projections was bought FOR projected value.
This is a guard heavy team so trades will likely be made in season. It is also one of the more top heavy teams in the league. Bam Bam being active on the waiver circuit early on will likely yield success if the waiver picks hit. However that's always a gamble.
I don't really like Kat valued so high here and the projections agree, sharing the front court with Golbert and Anthony davis likely looking to take a bigger role in the offense means the touches for Kat may be reduced from previous seasons. James harden is another risky pick, the once fpt scoring champion has long since fallen from grace and it's a question if he can get back to what he once was.
I think this team will need to retool slightly during the season to compete but that's just my opinion. It's possible playing to the fantasy points scoring system works out with this team. Time will tell. But for now, I'm rating this team low.
C-
Team LeGhney
Of all the teams on the list, I think this is the one that has the most potential. Lebron James and Paul George are the obvious headliners with Jarrett Allen likely providing a consistent base as a double double multi block type player. But where I think this team really shines is the potentials - Ben Simmons, Lauri markkanen, Draymond, Andre Drummond, Jalen Smith, Jalen Green, Cade Cunningham; all of these players are liable to breakout this season.
Team LeGhney will have to live up to their borrowed surname and make some adjustments throughout the season, and the best players on this team may be given a healthy dose of load management throughout the season, but this team might be THE underdog of the league. And I'm a sucker for underdogs.
C+
W First Seed
This team is deep. That was my first thought when I looked at this roster. The headliners here are Durant, Siakim, Valanciunas, and Dejounte Murray. Durant is projected as a hefty over pay here but I think when he's playing he's going to put up numbers. Everyone else listed above are going to be solid producers and the Value column illustrates that fairly easily. This is the best Valued team in the entire league at 62 dollars! So the depth is made even more impressive.
I really like the secondary stars here, CP3, Steven Adams, Kevin Porter jr, Mike Conley, Spendcer Dinwiddie, Middleton. Then we have some potential over achievers in malik basley and victor oladipo. This is just a really well constructed team and at great value. If I were to just declare the best drafted team, this might be it (with the caveat that we haven't played a single game yet). Well done.
A
Jimmy Buckets Jimmy
Sigh. First off this Team autodrafted for the majority of the draft. Maybe picks were set early on, I'm unsure. But this team should be renamed to the 1 Dollars with the insane amount of $1 dollar buys.
The Joker and Trae Young are excellent picks in fantasy and will boast some insane fpts game to game. Vucevic and Saddiq Bey should see an uptick in numbers as well this season. It's a steep drop from here however. This is the single most top heavy team in the league, and it will be interesting to see how this team fares as the season goes on.
For now, unfortunately, I have to rank this team aptly
D
Zu Crew
Home is where the heart is, and man was this team drafting from home. The players that were liked were vastly over paid for, and the result is the greatest NEGATIVE net Value of all teams at $-48. For reference the next closest net negative value is team bad decisions at $-12.
Lavine and Derozan are the big highlights here, this team represents the hopes and dreams of all Bulls fans that the duo can once again be THE duo of the NBA. Zach and Derozan were notorious for the most 30 point games at the same time last season, and are both viable to get a handful of assists and rebounds each game. That means whenever the bulls play, the team will be throwing haymakers (or at least bulls fans would hope)
Dame, Maxey, Wiseman, Mobely, and Collins round out the secondary level players with Ivey being a potential sleeper. This team has good depth but lack a true 1A player. If Derozan and Lavine can stay healthy together, they essentially can become that player though and that depth will be a blessing. If one of those two goes down then this team likely crumbles as well.
As a Bulls fan I'm rooting for this team, but following your heart and fandom hasn't played out well in this league in years past, and I don't think that will change this season.
B
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